What are the odds: Swansea at home?

Author: . Published: at 11:02pm

Written by Martin Backhouse @martinbackhouse

Let’s get it right, we were very lucky not to get embarrassed last weekend. It wasn’t pretty even though the result on paper scoreline suggests it was close. However, we move on! We welcome Swansea to the London Stadium on Saturday in what some are saying is a must win. I’ll be honest, I think we need to win this too. A draw wouldn’t define our season but a win would do absolute wonders for the confidence of the squad going into the international break. We’re 10/11 with Betway to win this one, with the draw at 5/2.

We have only lost one of our last nine Premier League games against Swansea (W5 D3), and they have never kept an away clean sheet at us, conceding 74 goals in 31 games in all competitions, stretching back to an FA Cup match in 1922 (W2 D7 L22). Bearing this in mind, it might be worth a bet on a 1-0 or 2-0 correct score at 11/2 and 7/1 respectively. These two choices are also backed up by the fact that the Swans have allowed their opponents 72 more shots in total & 23 more shots on target than they have attempted themselves in the Premier League this season; the biggest negative differential by a team in 2017-18 so far. They’ve also scored just three goals and attempted 10 shots on target in the Premier League this season; the same goal tally as Javier Hernandez (3) who has attempted seven shots on target alone.

Talking of the Mexican, he has now scored 40 Premier League goals – all inside the box. The only players with more goals in the competition to have all come from inside the box are John Terry (41) and Tim Cahill (56). Our sponsors have priced him up at 4/1 to score first, 6/4 anytime. Rumour has it he’ll start on the bench on Saturday. I hope we play him and Carroll up top together to be honest but I’m not hopeful. Does this mean a return to the starting line-up for Manuel Lanzini? I hope we don’t rush him back so a place on the bench would be fantastic. He’s available at 13/5 anytime if anyone wants to put their faith in our jewel. Andy Carroll has been involved in eight goals in six Premier League games against Swansea for us, scoring five goals and assisting three. Carroll has been involved in six of the eight home goals we have scored against the Swans in the Premier League (three goals, three assists). He’s 4/1 to find the net first, 13/8 anytime.

As you may or may not know, Betway have started to price up some extra markets for West Ham games. There’s only one as I type this, and that’s odds of 14/1 for West Ham to win, West Ham to have more corners than Swansea, Noble to get carded and Chicharito to score.

I’ll be lumping on a West Ham win at 10/11 this weekend; it’s going to happen! Good luck with your bets! COYI


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